Introductory Remarks at the IMF’s African Department Press Briefing
April 25, 2025
Good morning, and good afternoon to colleagues joining us from Africa and beyond. Thank you for being here today for the release of the IMF’s April Regional Economic Outlook for sub-Saharan Africa.
Six months ago, I highlighted our region’s sluggish growth, and the steep political and social hurdles governments had to overcome to push through essential reforms. Today, that fragile recovery faces a new test: a surge of global policy uncertainty so profound it is reshaping the region’s growth trajectory.
Just when policy efforts began to bear fruit, with regional growth exceeding expectations in 2024, the region’s hard-won recovery was overtaken by a sudden realignment of global priorities, casting a shadow over the outlook. We now expect growth in sub-Saharan Africa to ease to 3.8 percent in 2025 and 4.2 percent in 2026—marked down from October projections, driven largely by difficult external conditions: weaker demand abroad, softer commodity prices, and tighter financial markets.
Any further increase in trade tensions or tightening of financial conditions in advanced economies could further dampen regional confidence, raise borrowing costs, and delay investment. Meanwhile, Official Development Assistance to sub-Saharan Africa is likely to decline further, placing extra strain on the most vulnerable populations.
These external headwinds come on top of longer-standing vulnerabilities. High debt levels constrain the ability of many countries to finance essential services and development priorities. While inflationary pressures have moderated at the regional level, quite a number of countries are still grappling with elevated inflation, necessitating a tight monetary stance and careful fiscal policy.
Against this challenging backdrop, our report underscores the importance of calibrating policies to balance growth, social development, and macroeconomic stability. Building robust fiscal and external buffers is more important than ever, underpinned by credibility and consistency in policymaking.
In particular, there is a premium on policies to strengthen resilience: mobilize domestic revenue, improve spending efficiency, and strengthen public financial management and fiscal frameworks to lower borrowing costs. Reforms that enhance governance, improve the business climate, and foster regional trade integration are also needed to lay the groundwork for private sector–led growth. High growth is imperative to engender the millions of jobs that are needed.
A strong, stable, and prosperous sub-Saharan Africa is important for its people but also the world. It is the region that will be the main source of labor and incremental investment and consumption demand in the decades to come. External support as the region goes through its demographic transition is of tremendous strategic importance for future global prosperity.
The Fund is doing its part, having disbursed over $65 billion since 2020, and more than $8 billion last year. Our policy advice and capacity development efforts support more countries still.
Thank you for your attention. I am now happy to take your questions.