Topics in Nowcasting and Macroeconometric Forecasting and Analysis (NWC)
Invitation
Session No.: OT 25.29
Location: Vientiane, Lao People's Democratic Republic
Date: August 4-8, 2025 (1 week)
Delivery Method: In-person Training
Primary Language: English
Target Audience
Government officials involved in the development of macro-econometric models for forecasting, analysis, and implementation of macroeconomic policy.
Qualifications
Participants are expected to have an advanced degree in economics or equivalent experience and background in econometrics. They should also be comfortable using EViews for econometric applications. It is strongly recommended that applicants have completed the online Macroeconometric Forecasting (MFx) course.
Course Description
This course, presented by the Institute for Capacity Development, gives government officials a rigorous foundation estimating of macro-econometric models and their application for nowcasting, forecasting, and policy analysis in central banks, ministries, and public research institutions. The course examines univariate and multivariate econometric time series models, and nowcasting techniques such as BRIDGE, MIDAS, and UMIDAS models to incorporate high-frequency economic indicators into the forecasting process. Each topic includes a lecture discussing the underlying theory and a workshop with EViews applications. Participants work in groups on hands-on estimation and forecasting/nowcasting exercises.
Course Objectives
Upon completion of this course, participants should be able to:
- Understand and be proficient in the steps required to manage time-series data in EViews, estimate an OLS regression, and calculate its associated forecasts in EViews.
- Formulate several useful statistical procedures in EViews, including consolidation of time series from higher to lower frequencies; interpolation techniques; seasonal adjustment; and use of leading indicators.
- Identify appropriate high-frequency indicators and non-traditional data useful for nowcasting macroeconomic variables and prepare them for use in a nowcasting exercise.
- Formulate and estimate nowcasting models using several approaches (such as Bridge, MIDAS, and U-MIDAS estimators, etc.).
- Generate a nowcast from the base regression and consolidate competing forecasts using combination forecasts.
- Evaluate the accuracy of the nowcast using several forecasting performance indicators.
- Apply the nowcasting tools to their own country data and interpret the nowcast appropriately in policymaking settings.
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